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What are the warning signs that a forecasting model is no longer reliable?
Warning signs include rising error or growing bias compared with the baseline, forecasts consistently overridden by staff, residuals showing new patterns, inputs outside their usual range, and changes in the business such as new products, prices or channels. Any of these should trigger a review and possibly retraining.
Also watch for silent data problems: a feed that stops updating, a code change, or a field that changes meaning.
Responses can range from a simple recalibration to rebuilding the model. In the meantime, fall back on the baseline forecast and tell users to treat the model's output with caution. Having a documented process for this is part of running models responsibly, rather than treating them as fit-and-forget.
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