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How should forecasts handle public holidays and moving events?
Add holidays as explicit inputs, with a flag for the day and often for the days before and after. Fixed-date holidays can partly be captured by seasonality, but moving ones, such as Easter, Eid, Chinese New Year or school holidays, shift each year and must be listed by date or the model will blur their effect.
Effects differ by business. A public holiday may cut B2B orders but increase retail footfall, and a long weekend can create a bridge effect.
Useful practice:
- Keep a calendar table with holiday dates for each country or region you serve.
- Include lead-up and aftermath windows.
- Treat each major holiday as its own event if you have enough history.
- Check residuals around holiday dates to see if the effect is captured.
Global firms need local calendars, not just one national list.
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